中国木地板出口增长因素的实证分析——基于CMS模型

Empirical Analysis of the Factors Influencing Export Growth of Wood Floor in China:Based on CMS Model

首先概述中国木地板的出口贸易状况,着重分析中国木地板出口规模、市场份额、商品结构和主要出口市场,揭示中国加入世界贸易组织以来木地板出口迅速增长的现状。然后利用CMS模型,从需求、结构和竞争力3个维度对2001—2011年中国木地板出口的增长效应及各影响因素的作用强度和变化趋势进行了实证分析。最后得出结论:中国木地板对出口目标市场规模扩大的依赖度较高;对需求增长较快的新型木地板品种、目标市场的贸易集中度较低;中国木地板的产品结构和市场结构未能较好地适应目标市场的结构变化。为了促进中国木地板出口贸易的发展,应该优化出口产品和市场结构,提升产品质量,转变竞争模式,完善市场信息服务等。

This paper first briefly introduces the current situation of wood export in China. By analyzing the export scale,market share,structure of the export products and the main export markets,it reveals the rapid growth of wood export since China＇s entry into WTO. Then based on the constant market share model（ CMS model）,and from the three dimensions of demand,structure and competitiveness,it makes an empirical analysis of the effects and tendency of the influencing factors that lead to the export growth of China＇s wood floor from 2001 to 2011. Finally the following conclusions are derived： China has a relatively high dependence on the expansion of the target export markets,and a relatively low trade concentration of target markets and new wood floor species which have rapid growth of demands. The structures of export products and market of wood floor in China didn＇t adapt well to the changes of target markets. To promote the export development of wood floor in China,we should optimize the structures of export product and market,improve the quality of the products,change the mode of competition,and improve the market information service.