关键链法在项目进度规划中的应用研究

Critical Chain in Project Schedule Planning

进度管理是工程管理的一个重要方面。为解决施工过程中由工序混乱、窝工等因素造成的进度拖延,在PERT三点估计的基础上,对关键链法在项目进度管理中的应用进行建模。从工序内部和外部因素分析各工序的不确定性,基于PERT三点估计对关键链缓冲区设置方法进行了改进,使其更加合理实用。并通过Monte Carlo模拟将该方法与改进PERT法进行对比分析,证明该方法能够有效地控制项目进度,确保在要求的工期内有较高的完工概率,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Schedule management is an important aspect of construction management. In order to overcome the disadvantages of process chaos,slow work of the labor and so on,a model of the application in critical chain of project schedule is established based on PERT. By analyzing the uncertainty of process from both the external and the internal,progress is made in setting buffer quantities to make it more practical. Finally,it compares the effect of the two scheduling models by the Monte Carlo simulation,which proves that the critical chain method can control project schedule effectively and ensure higher probability in completion,and indicates its feasibility and effectiveness.