广义家庭投资视角下的房价调控压力量化研究

Quantitative Research on House Price Regulation Pressure from the Generalized Family Investment Perspective

基于广义家庭投资视角建立博弈论模型对政府行为进行分析,根据混合策略均衡原则得出政府调控房价的概率并视其为房价调控压力。基于对该概率的变量分析构建房价调控压力指数,并对中美两国数据进行实证分析,发现指数较好地反映了事实,且存在一定预测作用——模型显示2010年初我国房价调控压力指数为5.59,2013年初为2.32。据此认为为了减小房价调控压力,应防止恶性通货膨胀的出现、保持金融市场稳定较快发展、注重对消费性住房需求的疏导。

Game theory model is set up to analyze the government behavior from the generalized family investment perspective. The probability of the government to regulate housing price is concluded according to the mixed strategy equilibrium principle and regard it as house prices control pressure. An housing stress index is built based on the variables analysis of the probability. The index is validated by an empirical analysis of data from China and US. From the model, China＇s house prices control pressure index was 5.59 in early 2010,2.32 in early 2013. So to reduce the pressure of house price regulation,some suggestions are presented.