摘要
Background： Tectono grandis （teak） is one of the most important tropical timber species occurring naturally in India. Appropriate growth models, based on advanced modeling techniques, are not available but are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country. Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models and the principles of Dynamical System Theory provide a solid foundation for these. Methods： The state-space approach makes it possible to accommodate disturbances and avarying environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a dynamic growth model based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 22 teak sample plots in Karnataka, Southern India. Results： A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model has been presented which uses the state-space approach for modelling rates of change of three state-variables viz., dominant height, stems per hectare and stand basal area. Moreover, the model includes a stand volume equation as an output function to estimate this variable at any point in time. Transition functions were fitted separately and simultaneously. Moreover, a continuous autoregressive error structure is also included in the modelling process. For fitting volume equation, generalized method of moments was used to get efficient parameter estimates under heteroscedastic conditions. Conclusions： A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularly well suited to situations where available data is scarce.
Background： Tectono grandis （teak） is one of the most important tropical timber species occurring naturally in India. Appropriate growth models, based on advanced modeling techniques, are not available but are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country. Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models and the principles of Dynamical System Theory provide a solid foundation for these. Methods： The state-space approach makes it possible to accommodate disturbances and avarying environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a dynamic growth model based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 22 teak sample plots in Karnataka, Southern India. Results： A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model has been presented which uses the state-space approach for modelling rates of change of three state-variables viz., dominant height, stems per hectare and stand basal area. Moreover, the model includes a stand volume equation as an output function to estimate this variable at any point in time. Transition functions were fitted separately and simultaneously. Moreover, a continuous autoregressive error structure is also included in the modelling process. For fitting volume equation, generalized method of moments was used to get efficient parameter estimates under heteroscedastic conditions. Conclusions： A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularly well suited to situations where available data is scarce.
