不确定环境下供应商风险评价的区间证据推理

Interval Evidential Reasoning for Risk Assessment of Suppliers under Uncertainty

应用区间证据推理,对一类具有模糊不确定性指标的供应商进行风险评价。首先建立供应商二级结构的指标评价体系,利用区间值表示指标,避免单一值描述指标的不准确性。利用区间证据推理对各级指标依次进行递归融合,得到供应商的效用值并依此进行风险评价。实例表明该方法是一种在不确定环境下,对供应商进行风险评价的有效方法。

This paper investigates the risk assessment for suppliers which contain fuzzy and uncertain indexes by Interval Evidential Reasoning（IER）. A kind of secondary structure of index was established and using interval value to describe suppliers, the uncertain and fuzzy evidences of the suppliers were fused by IER recursively. Based on the results, the suppliers were evaluated and ranked according to the calculation of expected utilities of them respectively. Cases showed this approach is effective in suppliers＇risk assessment.