美元体系内的东亚权力转移:性质及前景

East Asia's Power Shift in the Dollar System:Its Nature and Prospects

客观和理性地评估东亚权力转移的现状、性质及前景,需要结合多个维度。中国的崛起虽然在一定程度上改变了东亚原有的权力格局,但还远未达到促成东亚实质性权力转移的效果。现阶段的东亚权力转移具有明显的"混沌"特征:单个国家通过逐次崛起或许在某个领域拥有一些相对优势,但没有任何一个国家能确保在所有的权力结构中拥有决定性的权力优势,更未达到可以从根本上扭转美国在该地区权力优势的程度。就性质而言,东亚地区内的权力转移是个别国家在美元体系内的地位提升现象。作为一种大而不倒的"威胁体系",美元体系的形成与发展对于维护美国的霸权地位至关重要,维护美元霸权构成了美国的核心国家利益。面对日本和中国在美元体系内的快速崛起,美国与之展开了长期的权力博弈。东亚权力转移的前景或是美元体系内的权力分散,或是权力由美国向中国转移所导致的国际权力体系的根本性改变。要实现后者,中国不仅要解决在新"三角贸易"格局中的脆弱地位和金融发展的制度约束,还要认真思考和解决两个问题:一是如何渐进摆脱美元体系的束缚及这一束缚所带来的风险,二是如何在大国复兴和具有世界意义的新型大国之间定义自己的未来。

Multidimensional considerations are needed when we analyze the status quo,nature,and prospect of power shift in East Asia.This paper argues that although China's rise has changed East Asia's previous power structure to some extent,it has not resulted in the effect of essential power shift in East Asia.The current power shift is obviously chaotic:individual economies in East Asia perhaps own some relative advantages in some aspects in the process of their rise,but none of them can attain decisive power advantages in all power structures,not to mention fundamentally overturning America's power advantages in the region.Power shift in East Asia is in essence individual economies' status enhancing phenomenon in the dollar system.As one kind of too-big-to-fail 'threat system',the formation and development of the dollar system is crucial to sustain America's hegemony position.For this reason,sustaining the dollar's hegemony constitutes the key national interest of the United States.In practice,the U.S.has enforced long-term power games with Japan and China when faced with the rapid rise of the two largest East Asian economies in the dollar system.There are two possible scenarios for East Asia's power shift;One is power diffusion in the dollar system and the other is the fundamental change of international power system resulting from the power shift from the U.S.to China.For the second scenario,China needs to deal with two key problems;the fragility in the new 'triangle trade' pattern and institutional constraints of financial development.Moreover,another two important issues must be considered seriously.The first one is how to gradually escape from the constraints and risks of the dollar system.The second is how to define China's future between the reemergence of great power and new type of global greatpower relations.