中美金融恐怖平衡生成基础、维系困境及化解思路

On the Balance of Financial Terror Between China and the U. S.

中美经济增长方式的差异性是导致中美金融恐怖平衡的根源,直接反映的是全球商品与美元流动的方向性失衡。在现行国际货币体系(BWII)下,美元固有的高风险性及美国对债务型经济的高度依赖,导致其融资成本不断上升,债券融资需求持续扩大。中国促进经济转型与投资多元化的努力,导致对美元资产需求相对减少,加之美国经济增长模式调整及制造业重振,意味着美国输出美元交换中国商品的互补性格局正在逐步向竞争性格局转化,这使得继续维系中美金融恐怖平衡格局面临困境。该格局的有效化解还有赖于双方现有发展模式的成功调整,同时中国也需要促进外汇储备资产管理多元化,推动国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化进程。

The balance of financial terror between China and the US results from different modes of economic de- velopment and directly reflects the imbalance in global commodity and dollar liquidity. Under the current monetary system （BWII）, the inherent high risk of US dollar and the dependence of the US on debt-based economy have led to growing financing costs and increasing demand for financing bonds in the US. The efforts of China to promote economic restruc- turing and diversified investment result in relative decrease in demand for dollar assets, which, along with the adjustment of economic growth mode and re-industrialization in the US means that the complementary pattern of commodity ex- change is being substituted by a competitive pattern and poses challenges to the maintenance of a balance of financial terror between China and the US. An effective solution depends on the successful adjustment of the existing modes of development in both countries. Meanwhile, it is urgent for China to promote the diversification of reserve assets manage- ment, the reform of the international monetary system and the intemationalization of RMB.