宏观审慎监测制度建构之探

An Exploration on the Establishment of Macro-Prudential Warning System

实行宏观审慎是美国金融危机之后国际社会对金融监管制度从理念到内容上的最深刻反思,而要实行宏观审慎,特别是其中的逆周期宏观审慎监管需要以建立宏观审慎监测制度为前提。宏观审慎监测制度应当围绕确定宏观审慎指标及其临界值、获取监测信号和对策转化为框架。宏观审慎指标应具有综合性、预示性、动态性等,且要有合理的阈值。对宏观审慎指标应综合运用多样化的分析手段获取监测信号,并在因应和综合辨析监测信号的基础上出台或调整宏观审慎监管措施。建立我国的宏观审慎监测制度,需要重点解决宏观审慎监测主体不明、宏观审慎监测制度内容空缺以及协调规则与技术相结合等问题。

The adoption of macro - prudential regulation is the result of deepest reflection by international community on financial regulation both in term of its rational and content. Exercising macro - prudential supervision and anti - cyclical macro - prudential supervision in particular depends on the establishment of macro - prudential warning system. The macro - prudential warning system should adopt the framework consisting of the establishment of macro - prudential indicators（MPIs） and their threshold values, signal acquirement, and policy transformation. MPIs should be comprehensive, predicative and dynamic, and assign to them proper thresholds. Multiple analysis methods should be applied to extract warning signals from the MPIs in order to adopt or adjust the macro - prudential measures in response to these signals after full analysis. To set up such a system, China should determine the subject for macro - prudential warning, fill the gap of macro - prudential warning system, and combine properly rules making and supervisory techniques in order.