金融危机期间中国对美国出口下跌分解研究

Decomposition Research on the Fall of China's Exports to the United States during the Financial Crisis

文章对金融危机期间，中国对美国的出口下跌进行详细的结构分解研究。利用2007—2009年中国出口到美国22类HS-10分位产品的月度数据。将出口增长率的变化分解为数量效应、价格效应、老产品退出效应和新产品进入效应。再通过与墨西哥对美国出口的比较分析，深入探讨金融危机期间中国出口下降的深层机理，这将有利于了解中国对外贸易的优劣势，优化出口商品结构，提升应对未来可能发生的国际风险之能力。研究表明中国对美出口下降主要受数量效应的影响，下跌幅度不大．主要得益于价格效应的正向抵消作用，而老产品退出效应和新产品进入效应的影响较小。

This paper decomposes the fall of China＇s exports to the United States during the financial crisis in detail. It uses the HS-10 monthly data of 22 kinds of products which China exports to the United States. It decomposes the fall into quantity change, price change, product entry and exit. It also makes a comparative analysis with Mexico＇s exports to the United States to discuss the deep mechanism for the fall of China＇s exports during the financial crisis. It finds that the fall of China＇s exports to the United States is mainly affected by the effect of quantity changes, the effect of price change is positive, and the effect of product entry and exit is small.