美国量化宽松货币政策的退出与当前国际金融形势

Exit from Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy and the Current International Financial Situation

由于美国经济复苏基础稳健,各项宏观经济指标一致向好,金融市场流动性极度宽松,加杠杆与泡沫行为在集聚,美联储采取了温和加速退出量化宽松货币政策的策略。在美联储可能启动加息的预期下,国际金融市场将呈现流动性向适度宽松转化、基准利率温和提升、长期利率上升、国际信用规模稳步扩张、资本持续回流发达国家尤其是美国的基本趋势。

FED has taken a smooth mild accelerated exit from quantitative easing monetary policy based on stable economic recovery, good macroeconomic indicators, extraordinary liquidity, rising leverage and bubble. Japan and Euro areas are going to keep and reinforce quantitative easing monetary policy because of poor economic performance and deflation pressure. The exit scenario will dominate the basic trend of international financial market. The international financial market will be experienced liquidity movement from extraordinary easing to moderately easing, rising benchmark interest rates and long-term interest rates, mild global credit expansion, and reversal of portfolio flows from emerging countries to advanced countries, especially the USA.