工业适度重型化背景下的低碳路径选择：基于广东工业的实证分析

Low- carbon Path Selection under the Heavy Industrialization:A Case Study of Guangdong Industry

对工业适度重型化背景下的高碳发展惯性特征进行分析和预测,并以广东为重点,利用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)研究工业能源消费历史碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明,广东工业重型化和高碳化在未来一段时期仍将处于惯性高位区间,工业碳排放峰值预计出现在2025年左右;由技术进步诱发的能源效率提升是过去十多年来碳排放增长减缓的主要影响因素,而产业结构和能源结构调整尚未发挥足够的降碳效应。结合广东工业适度重型化发展特征,研究认为,能源效率提升仍是现阶段广东工业碳减排的主要途径。随着技术进步效应的边际递减,中远期碳减排的主要动力源于产业结构和能源结构的优化。

The inertia of high-carbon development is analyzed and predicted under the heavy industrial-ization of Guangdong province in this study,the logarithmic mean weight divisia index method is used to ana-lyze the driving factors of historical carbon emissions from the sector of Guangdong industrial energy consump-tion. The results show that the trends of heavy industrialization and high-carbon development will continue in the high range and the peak of industrial carbon emissions is expected to occur around 2025 . The improvement of energy efficiency which is derived by technical progress,is a major factor to mitigation carbon emissions growth in the past decade. However,structure adjustment for industrial and energy does not yet have sufficient effect in reducing carbon emissions. Given the characteristics of Guangdong heavy industrialization,it is sug-gested that the improvement of energy efficiency is still the main way to mitigate carbon emissions growth for Guangdong industrial carbon emissions in this stage. With the diminishing marginal effects of technological progress,the main driving force in the long-term should convert to industrial structure optimization and ener-gy structure adjustment.