新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素分析——基于金融脆弱性的视角

The Factors Influencing the“Sudden Stops”of International Capital Flows in Emerging Markets——Based on the Perspective of Financial Fragility Theory

在金融全球化的背景下,脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场,导致国际资本流动发生剧烈波动甚至"突然停止"。运用面板Probit模型考察1976-2012年22个新兴市场国家国际资本流动"突然停止"的影响因素,着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动"突然停止"的影响。实证研究结果表明:一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动"突然停止"具有显著的负影响;金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度,进一步提高国际资本流动"突然停止"的发生概率。

With the development of financial globalization,the international capital market would face shocks stemming from domestic financial fragility,which may lead to the volatility of capital and“sudden stops”. By using a broad sample of emerging markets,this paper assesses the impact of financial fragility on the“Sudden Stops”of international capital flows. We find that the fragility in financial system significantly in-fluences the occurrence of the“Sudden Stops”. The financial opening will enlarge the degree of financial fra-gility if financial system becomes more vulnerable,which would trigger the volatility of economy and raise the probability of“Sudden Stops”.