基于社交媒体用户评论和关注度的电影票房预测模型

Prediction model for film box office based on social media user comments and user attention

通过研究电影票房与社交媒体用户行为的关系,揭示在线口碑(word-of-mouth)对业绩表现的作用。与之前的研究不同,将社交媒体用户评论、用户关注等用户行为数据作为内生变量进行研究,认为用户行为既影响业绩,又被业绩影响。首先,以电影产业为研究对象,分析了每周票房与用户评论、用户评分、用户关注度等之间的关系,通过样板(Panel)数据分析,构建了电影票房预测模型。接着,将票房作为自变量,分析了作为在线口碑表现形式的用户评论、用户关注度与票房的关系。最后,分析了在线口碑自身的特点,得出了多个有意义的结论,如用户评分仅仅是票房收入的反映,其本身并不显著影响票房。本研究具有良好的理论价值和实践意义。

In this paper, by studying the relationship between the film and the social media user behavior, we try to reveal the powder of word-of-mouth on the sales performance. Previous studies usually take user behavior as exogenous variables, but in this study, we review user behavior as an endogenous variable, which can affect the performance of sales. In the film industry, we analyze the relationship between the weekly box office and user comment number, rating, user focus, by panel data analysis, to reveal the influence of user behavior to movie box office performance, including the persuasive effect and awareness effect. Then, we analyze the influence of the box office to word-of-mouth, especially to user reviews and user focus. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of online word-of-mouth. We get some interesting conclusions, and we find that user rating is the only reflect of the box office, and itself does not significantly affect the box office, which means that high score does not necessarily let to high box office. Our research not only has higher theoretical contribution, but also has good practical significance.