基于行为博弈的特大型工程项目复杂风险组合性均衡评价

Dynamic and Blurry Evaluation of Complex Risk about Super-huge Type Project Based on Behavioral Game Theory

基于行为博弈理论,构建了特大型工程项目复杂风险组合性均衡评价模型。在项目风险评价中,不仅综合考虑了风险发生的可能性和价值影响,还嵌入了项目关联主体的价值偏好和动态博弈因素,从而使项目复杂风险评价具有更为合理的主体行为基础。文章首先从博弈视角分析了特大型工程项目复杂风险评价的特殊性,其次运用模糊层次法、行为实验方法设计指标体系和参数,最后对模型进行算例分析,得出项目分类风险和组合性风险指数。可为特大型工程项目复杂风险动态评价和监控提供实用的分析工具。

This paper emphasis that to evaluate the complex risk about super-huge type project, we should not only think about the probability and valuable influence of risk, but also put in factors of the main body ＂s value preference and dynamic game playing. Thus method makes the evaluation has more rational behavioral base. Firstly, this paper analyses the characteristic of the risk evaluation and game-playing feature in the process of risk development. Secondly, it builds evaluation index system and the dynamic and blurry evaluation model for the risks. Thirdly, it tests and amends the important parameters using testing methods of behavior economics. Lastly, it uses this model to counts four main kind of risks index for a representative project. It can provide a useful and simple tool for complex risk evaluation and public communication of the super-huge type project.