轨道交通客流预测的扩展反馈四阶段法研究

Research on an Extended Feedback Four-step Algorithm in Passenger Flow Forecast of Urban Rail Transit

针对传统客流预测的四阶段方法中存在客流预测各阶段相对独立的弊端,提出了扩展反馈四阶段法,使交通分配反馈修正交通分布阶段的误差,迭代反馈,达到平衡收敛。采用扩展反馈四阶段法对重庆轨道交通3号线客流进行了预测分析,结果表明,在2015、2025和2035年的3个目标年,当迭代次数分别为7、8和9次时,符合平衡收敛条件,满足收敛精度5%的要求。

This paper puts forward an extended feedback four - step algorithm to avoid the independence of the traditional four - step algorithm. It corrects the error in the traffic distribution phase with feedback of the traffic distribution and iterates the feedback to get an equilibrium convergence. This paper forecasts passenger flow of Chongqing Metro Line 3 based on the extended feedback four - step algorithm.The results show that the equilibrium convergence precision will reach 5% in the 3 target years of 2015, 2025, 2035 when iteration number is 7, 8 and 9 respectively.