基于QHSME的装备危险耦合传导GERT分析

GERT analysis of coupled conduction for materiel hazard based on QHSME

针对装备活动中危险耦合传导关系描述不清楚、分析不具体的问题,构建考虑任意分布的危险耦合传导图形评审技术(graph evaluation and review technique,GERT)改进模型。提出了系统危险度、危险耦元重要度、危险路径隶属度等扩展分析参数,进一步刻画装备活动中的微观危险信息;采用系统耦合理论和极大熵方法(maximum entropy,ME)配置GERT模型变量,并设计量子和声算法(quantum harmony search algorithm,QHS)求解危险度概率密度极大熵模型。最后,以飞机大表速低空俯冲科目为例进行分析。结果表明,与传统GERT模型比较,该改进模型能充分反映危险耦元对装备活动随机过程的交互影响关系,以及其他相关微观信息,且具有较好的求解精度与适用性。

Aiming at the fuzzy description and unspecific analysis of hazard coupled conduction in materiel activities,an improved graph evaluation and review technique （GERT）model considering random distribution is built.The extended parameters of system hazard degree,hazard coupling elements weightiness and hazard path membership degree are put forward to further depict microcosmic hazard information of materiel activities.The variables of the improved GERT model are configured based on the system coupling theory and the maximum entropy （ME）method,and the quantum harmony search algorithm is designed to calculate the maximum entropy model for density estimation of hazard degree.Finally,improved GERT is analyzed for the battle plane training in subject of “high velocity at low altitude”.The result shows that the mutual influence relationship among hazards in the random process of materiel activities is reflected adequately by the improved GERT model,as well as other concerned microcosmic information,with fitting accuracy and application.