我国上市公司财务预警的实证分析——以EVA和董事会治理为研究视角

Empirical Analysis of Financial Early Warning of Listed Companies in China——In the Perspective of EVA and Board Governance

本文以2012年公布的我国沪深两市A股公司中的38家ST公司(包含*ST公司)为研究对象,运用Logistic回归方法,分别加入所选的传统财务指标、EVA类指标以及董事会治理变量后,一共建立了三个预警模型。结果显示,三次回归的模型判断准确率分别为81.6%、84.2%和89.5%,表明同时将EVA和董事会治理变量引入财务风险预警模型中是可行并有效的。

By taking the 38 ST companies（including＊ST companies）in China＆#39;s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange markets in 2012 as the object, and by using logistic regression methods, this paper establishes three early warning models after adding in proper order the variables of the selected traditional financial indicators, EVA cate-gories of indicators and Board Governance. The results show that the percent of accuracy of three regression mod-els was 81.6%, 84.2%and 89.5%respectively, which indicates that it is feasible and effective to add the EVA vari-ables and board governance variables into financial risk early warning model at the same time.