不同条件下水文要素重现期的计算方法

Methods to Calculate Return Period of Hydrological Elements under Different Conditions

重现期在工程规划、设计、运行和管理中已经得到了广泛应用,然而,由于气候变化和人类活动破坏了水文频率分析中的一致性基础,致使基于一致性的重现期计算方法面临挑战,迫切需要研究新的重现期计算方法.以重现期两种不同的定义入手,给出了在水文系列满足独立性假定后重现期在一致性与非一致性条件下各自计算公式,并以广东省东江流域龙川站1956～2009年的年最大洪峰资料系列为例,分析了不同条件下重现期及其变化的特点与原因.

Return period is widely used for civil engineering planning, design and management. However, the climate change and human activities have broken the stationary condition of the hydrological series, which is the base for the hydrological frequency analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new method to calculate the return period of the hydrological elements concerned by people. Based on the two different concepts of return period, the four equations of calculating the return period under the sta- tionary and non-stationary conditions have been summarized and developed while the assumption of the independence of the hydro- logical series can be satisfied. The equations of calculating the return period under the different conditions were applied in flood frequency at the Longchuan Station located on the Dongjiang River of Guangdong Province in China. The annual maximum peak discharge time series that are available from 1956 to 2009 have been taken in the return period calculation. The results of the re- turn periods have also been discussed.