不同性别湖北黑头羊生长曲线的拟合分析

Growth Curve Fitting of Hubei Black-head Goats with Different Sex

采用Gompertz、Logistic和Von Bertalanffy3种非线性模型对湖北黑头羊0～24月龄体重生长数据进行了分析和曲线拟合.结果表明,3种模型均能较好地拟合湖北黑头羊的生长曲线（R2＞0.99）,但不同性别湖北黑头羊的最优拟合模型不尽相同,其中公羊最佳拟合模型为Gompertz （R2=0.999 32）,拐点月龄和拐点体重分别为6.21月龄和20.823 kg,Gompertz模型方程为W=56.604 9 e-2.885 1exp（-0.17051）;母羊最佳拟合模型为Von Bertalanffy（R2=0.998 12）,拐点月龄和拐点体重分别为4.17月龄和13.221 kg,Von Bertalanffy模型方程为W=44.619 3×（1-0.643 3 e-015751）3.

The growth curve of Hubei black-head goats from 0 to 24 months were fitted with three nonlinear models including Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy. The results showed that the three growth curve models had good fitting for Hubei black-head goats （R2〉0.99）. The optimal models of different sex were different. For rams, the Gompertz model fitted best （R2=0.999 32）, with the growth turning points of 20.823 kg of body weight at 6.21 months of age. The Gompertz model equa- tion for rams was W=56.604 9 e-2.885 lexp （-0.170 5 t）. For ewes, Von Bertalanffy model fitted best fitting （R2=0.998 12）, with the growth turning points of 13.221 kg of body weight at 4.17 months of age. The Von Bertalanffy model equation for ewes was W=44.619 3×（ 1-0.643 3e-0.1575t）3.