采用灰色GM(1,1)模型的汽车产量预测

Prediction of Automobile Production Based on GM( 1,1) Model

选取我国2000—2011年间的汽车产量数据,应用灰色预测理论,建立我国汽车产量的GM(1,1)预测模型,对我国汽车产量进行中短期预测。结果表明:灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高,比较适合进行汽车产量的中短期预测;且未来几年我国汽车产量依然保持稳步增长。最后,提出了我国十二五期间汽车产业发展战略的建议。

This paper selects the automobile production data of our country from 2000 to 2011,and establishes the automobile production model based on GM（1,1）model for short-term automobile pro-duction of our country. The results show that,the gray GM（1,1）model has a higher accuracy,and is suitable for short-term automobile prediction;meanwhile,it will still keep a lasting steady-state growth in the next few years. Finally,the proposal of automobile production strategy is put forward during 12th Five-year.