基于区间灰数DGM(1,1)模型的客运交通量预测

Prediction of Passenger Traffic Volume with the Interval Grey Number DGM(1,1) Model

科学的预测客运交通量对于我国交通运输业发展具有重要的现实意义.为了提高客运量预测的精度,本文应用区间灰数DGM(1,1)模型对1995—2002年全国客运交通量进行模拟和预测,得到了预测精度较高的结果,这为客运交通量的预测提供了一种简单而可靠的新途径.

Prediction of passenger traffic volume is of great practical significance for transportation development. In order to improve the predicting accuracy,the interval grey number DGM( 1,1) model is applied on the passenger traffic volume data over the years 1995 to 2002 in China for simulation and prediction. The results demonstrate that the interval grey number DGM( 1,1) model gives good predicting accuracy and thus provides a simple and reliable method for the prediction of passenger traffic volume.