城市老年人的机构养老意愿及影响因素研究——以北京市西城区为例

A Study on the Factors Associated with Preferences for Institutional Care of the Elderly in Urban China: Evidences from Xicheng District of Beijing

以北京市"西城区老年人养老服务需求调查"数据为依托,以安德森模型为分析框架,并引入社区变量,运用Logistic回归方法对失能老人和非失能老人的机构养老意愿及影响因素进行对比分析,探索倾向因素、使能因素、需求因素和社区因素对老年人机构养老意愿的影响。研究发现,安德森模型中涉及的三类因素和社区因素均对非失能老年人的机构养老意愿产生显著影响,而倾向因素、使能因素和社区因素对失能老人的机构养老意愿作用明显。针对分析结果,笔者结合家庭和社区,为社会养老服务体系的建设和规划提出了有针对性的建议。

Employing the data from “The survey on demands of the elderly for ageing support services in Xicheng District” of Beijing, this study adopted the Anderson Model as the analytical framework. We introduced community variables into the model, and explored the intention to institutional care and predict factors of elderly with and without ADL disability respectively. The Logistic Regression Model has been used for analysis, the tendency and enabling factors, as well as demand and community variables have been put into the model. The regression results indicated that those four kinds of factors are significantly associated with the intention to institutional care of the elderly without ADL disability. However, for the elderly with ADL disability, their intentions are highly related to tendency and enabling factors as well as demands for services. Based on the results from the analysis, recommendations and suggestions for families, communities and government, have been put forward to improve the social aging services support system.