中国劳动力转移波动对宏观经济的冲击效应

The Shock Effect of Labor Transfer Fluctuation for Macro-economy in China

通过构建劳动力转移波动冲击宏观经济的动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨劳动力转移对中国宏观经济影响的内在机理及影响程度。实证结果表明:建立的动态随机一般均衡模型能够较好地解释实际经济特征,劳动力转移对宏观经济变量的影响较其他冲击具有长期性,对产出、消费、投资和资本存量具有长期正向效应,对就业、物价、工资收入和生产成本具有长期负向效应。技术进步、政府支出和劳动力供给对宏观经济的冲击与已有研究较为一致,但与劳动力转移相比,三种冲击对宏观经济的影响仅为中短期效应。在对各宏观经济变量变化的贡献中,劳动力转移仅对产出发挥了主要作用,对资本和物价的变化有重要影响,但要弱于技术进步的影响,而在对消费和就业的影响上,劳动力转移要显著弱于技术进步。

The paper set up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including labor transfer which used data simulation method to study the inherent logic and dynamic impact of labor transfer influence on macroeconomy in China. Empirical findings show that: the DSGE model can explain the real economy well, the shock of labor transfer for macroeconomy is longer than other variables. Labor transfer has positive impact on output, consumption, investment and capital stock in the long term, and has negative impact on employment, price, wage and output cost in the long term. The impact of technical progress, government expenditures and labor supply is the same with existent research, but they are midterm and shortterm impact. Labor transfer only play a significant role in contribution for output, has important impact on capital stock and price. The impact of labor transfer for consumption and employment is weaker than technical progress.