我国计划生育政策的反思与展望——由“单独二孩”引发的思考

Reflection and Prospect of China's Birth Controlling Policy:Thinking from “Couples to Have a Second Baby If Either Is an Only Child”

中国的独生子女政策施行已整整一代人了,政策施行虽然取得了控制和减缓人口增长的效果,但也付出了极高的社会代价。理性反思和科学评价计划生育政策的是非得失,不仅关系到如何看待计划生育利益相关者的价值导向和利益诉求,更是深化认识人口及其与经济社会发展规律的现实需要。鉴于政策长期执行带来的重大人口与经济社会风险,研究认为,"单独二孩"只能作为短期的过渡政策,应摒弃"人口是负担"的传统思维观念,尽快放开二胎,提倡适度生育,以促进我国人口长期均衡发展,实现中华民族的永续繁荣。

The implementation of China ’ s onechild policy has been a whole generation, which produces not only the effect of controlling and slowing down population growth, but also a very high social cost. Scientific reflection and evaluation of gain and loss of the birth controlling policy not only involves how to treat the value orientation and interest appeal of the birth controlling stakeholders, but also is a realistic need to deepen the cognition of the law of population and economic and social development. Given the big population and economic and social risk which arises from longrunning policies, the paper insists that the policy of “couples to have a second baby if either is an only child” can be only used as a short transition policy, the government should abandon the traditional concept of populationbeburden and let go two births as soon as possible, advocate moderate fertility, so as to promote the population longterm balanced development, and to realize the sustainable prosperity of the Chinese nation.