中国节能减排潜力测度与优化路径

Measurement on Potentials of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction and Its Optimization Path in China

在综合考虑能源利用和污染物排放的基础上,利用数据包络分析方法构建节能潜力和减排潜力的测度模型。利用1996—2010年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,计算其节能潜力和减排潜力。基于此,利用ArcGIS10.0软件分析中国节能潜力和减排潜力的时空演进情况,找到各省节能减排的最优路径。结果表明:整体上看,中国具有较大的节能减排潜力,其中节能减排潜力较大的省份主要有山西、贵州、云南、陕西和甘肃等;随着时间的推移,中国的节能减排潜力呈明显的"西-中-东"阶梯状分布格局,节能、减排的重点区域均有向西部地区转移的倾向;中国节能减排的重点监控省份可选择的优化路径有渐进式和飞跃式两种。

Considering energy utilization and pollution emission comprehensively,this paper constructs the model to measure the potentials of energy-saving and emission reduction by using the DEA method. And it uses the related data of 30 provinces（autonomous regions and municipali- ties） in China ftom 1996 to 2010 to calculate the potentials of energy-saving and emission reduction. Then it applies ArcGIS10.0 software to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of provincial potentials of energy-saving and emission reduction, and finds out the optimal paths of energy saving and emission reduction of various areas. The research results show as follows ：overall, the potential in energy-saving and emission reduction in China is larger, such as Shanxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Gansu all have larger potential;the potential of energy-saving and emission reduction in China takes on a pattern of ＂West-in-East＂ ladder-like distribution significantly, and there is the trend that the key areas of energy saving and emission reduction transfer to the west;the monitored key provinces are facing two kinds of optimal paths,namely the progressive and the leap.