经济增长和外贸出口对我国快递行业发展的影响及对策

采用1989—2012年的年度数据,利用协整分析和误差修正模型分析GDP增长和对外贸易出口对我国快递行业发展的动态影响。实证分析结果表明,GDP每增长1个百分点,快递业务量增长7.28个百分点;而对外贸易出口每增长1个百分点将导致快递业务量下降2.988个百分点。快递行业的快速发展是经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物,同时也是近期我国对外贸易出口受挫而引致企业将产品生产和销售专注于国内市场的必然结果。

This essay adopts 1989—2012 annual data,using co-integration analysis and error correction model to analyze the dynamic effects of GDP growth and foreign trade export to the development of China’s courier industry.The conclusions show that：1 percentage point rise of GDP drives 7.28 percentage points increase of per courier business;the foreign trade export grows by 1 percentage point,per courier services will decline by 2.988 percentage points.Empirical analysis shows that：the rapid development of the express delivery is a certain stage result of economic development and also the inevitable result of com-panies focused production and sales on the domestic market because of a setback of China’s foreign trade export recently.