世界男子手球队参赛7项实力指标评估法的构建与运用

Construction and Application of Competition Ability Evaluate Method of Seven Indexes of the World Men’s Handball Team

运用文献资料、数理统计等研究方法,对2011年世界男子手球锦标赛各队共95场比赛数据进行统计分析,目的在于试图构建世界优秀男子手球队临场技战术能力的评估方程,从而为教练员指导训练、运动员参加比赛等制定决策提供依据。结果显示:(1)男子手球队训练的13项宏观指标与7项微观指标对世界男子手球队科学训练的诊断具有非常重要的实践意义与可操作性;(2)判别分析方法对世界男子手球队各项技战术的处理效果较好,而且还筛选出了7个对比赛胜负影响最大的关键性因子;(3)依据7个因子构建了可预测比赛优胜的判别函数方程,其预判方程的准确率高达94%,且外带检验准确率也高达93%以上;(4)首次建立了男子手球队参赛实力7项指标评估法,并且对其进行了验证,具有较高的准确性与可靠性。从事手球项目的教练员可以参照宏观与微观指标、预判方程以及评估标准等,对球队的参赛实力情况进行定量评价与分析,发现问题,及时对球队的竞技情况做出科学的诊断,以便在训练、比赛中做出科学的调整与改进。

By using the literature review,mathematical statistics,through making statistics on 95 matches of Men’s Handball Match in the 2011 World Handball Championship. Its purpose is to try to build the world outstanding men’s handball team spot assessment of the technical and tactical ability of the equation,so as to guide the training of coaches,and athletes corresponding decision competitions. The results showed that：1）Thirteen macro indicators and seven microscopic indicators of the world men’s handball team of scientific training has a very important meaning and practice maneuverability;2）Discriminant analysis on the world of the men’s handball team better handling skills and tactics,but also selected seven biggest impact on the game-winning critical factor;3）Based on seven factors to build a predictable game winning discriminant function equation,the accuracy rate equations predict up to nearly 94%,and packed test accuracy rate as high as 93% or more;4）Men’s handball team first established seven indicators to assess the strength of competition law and its verified shown to have high accuracy and reliability. Handball Coaches can refer to predict equation constructed in this study to diagnose the team competitive state,and then adjust training content,training methods.