房价促进我国出口贸易发展的机理与实证

The Failure Mechanism of Housing Price to Regulate the Excessive Agglomeration of Export Industry and China's Export Trade

在我国当前市场经济不完善的条件下,厂商不需因房价急速上涨而以名义工资形式给予劳工过多的弥补,以及房地产市场的垄断性和政府人为地以商品房用地的收益来弥补工业用地的损失,使房价对出口贸易产生了一种正向促进作用。运用中国35个大中城市2002~2012年的面板数据进行实证分析,静态面板模型、工具变量法和两步系统GMM的估计结果都显示：由于我国当前市场经济不完善,房价越高的东南沿海城市,其出口贸易越发达。这对资源配置市场化改革、外贸失衡治理具有重要的政策启示意义。

In the condition of China’s imperfect marketing economy and underemployment,there is a certain degree of failure mechanism of housing price to regulate the export industry’s excessive agglomeration. The misallocation of agglomeration economy and agglomeration diseconomy makes manufacturers unnecessary to give too much to make up for workers in the name of forms of wages because commercial housing prices rise rapidly.The monopoly of the real estate market and the government’s artificial use of commercial housing land incomes to make up for the loss of the industrial land lead to the failure mechanism of commercial housing price transmission to the rental price of plant buildings and the real estate industry’s occupation of the manufacture industry. The paper makes an empirical analysis based on the panel data of China’s 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2002 to 2009, makes an estimation with the method of static panel data model,instrumental variables and two step system GMM, and finds that the higher commercial housing prices are in southeast coastal areas or cities, the more aggregated their export industry and the more developed their export trade will be because of the failure mechanism of housing price to regulate the excessive agglomeration of export industry. The results have an important policy implication for the allocation of resource market reform and trade imbalance governance.