中国工业碳减排潜力估算

Estimation of Industrial Carbon Emission Reduction Potential in China

工业是大多数国家碳排放最重要的领域,也是减排潜力最大、持续时间最长的领域。研究工业领域碳减排潜力对于理解中国碳排放峰值及参加国际气候变化谈判具有重大现实意义。本文采用经济核算的方法对2010-2050年我国工业碳减排潜力进行了估算。结果显示:在2030年工业碳排放达峰前,2010-2030年工业累积减排潜力为83.8亿t,其中,结构减排31.2亿t,强度减排52.6亿t;在2030年达峰之后,工业将继续为碳减排发挥积极贡献,2030-2050年累积减排潜力65.9亿t,其中,结构减排24.77亿t,强度减排41.15亿t。如果在这个过程中,工业内部结构和能源结构能得以进一步优化,则工业减排潜力更大,相应工业碳排放峰值将在原有预计基础上再下降8%左右,工业碳排放峰值也将提前至2025年前后出现。在估算中国工业碳减排潜力之前,考察了发达国家工业碳排放变化路径,发现工业可通过结构减排和强度减排"两个轮子"来为全国减排做出贡献,即使发达国家工业碳排放已越过峰值也是如此。文章的结论和对策建议是:1从工业碳排放达峰推断,中国不宜承诺于2030年之前实现总量达峰,并坚持绝对减排应在2035年之后;2我国工业部门持续碳减排潜力巨大,这为日后我国气候谈判增加了底气,"强度减排"主张可作为我国参加气候谈判的一个重要策略选项;3坚持市场在资源配置中的决定性作用改革取向,完善国内相关制度设计,将工业技术减排潜力充分发挥出来;4促进地区协调发展,充分发挥产业结构调整产生的减排效应,警惕由产业转移带来的产业结构逆向调整问题;5进一步加强国际合作,大力促进包括CCUS技术在内的工业碳减排技术的应用和发展。

Industry is the most important carbon emission field in the most countries, and it is also the field of the greatest reduction potential and can last a very long time for emission reduction. Studying on industrial carbon emission reduction potential has a great significance for understanding China＇ s emissions peak and participating in international climate change negotiations. This paper estimates 2010 -2050 China＇ s industrial carbon reduction potential by economic accounting method. The estimation outcomes are： the cumulative industrial emission reduction potential is 8.38 billion t before the year 2030 in which industrial carbon emission reaches the peak ,including 3. 12 billion t structural emission reduction and 5.26 billion t intensity emission reduction. Industry will continue to play a positive contribution for carbon reduction after 2030, and the cumulative emission reduction potential is 6. 59 billion t during 2030 - 2050,including 2.477 billion t structural emission reduction and 4.115 billion t intensily emission reduction. In fact, industry has greater potential to reduce emissions if the internal industrial structure and the energy structure can be optimizated at the same time, and the corresponding industrial carbon emission peak is expected to appear around 2025, and the peak value is expected to decline 8% than the original estimated value. Before estimating China＇ s industrial carbon reduction potential, the paper analyzed the industrial carbon emissions changed paths in developed countries, and found that industrial carbon emission reduction can contribute the whole national emission reduction by ＂two wheels＂, structural emission reduction and intensity emission reduction, even if developed countries have crossed the industrial emission peak as well. The conclusions and suggestions are： ①Inferred from the industrial carbon emission peak, China should not be committed to reach carbon emission peak before 2030, and insist on absolute reduction after 2035. ②China＇ s industrial sector has great carbon emission potentials,which backbone our climate negotiations in the future, and ＇ intensity emission reduction＇ can be put forward as an important policy option in the climate negotiations. ③Insist on the market-oriented refiorm that market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and improve the relevant domestic institutional design to realize the technology emission reduction potentials. ④Promote regional coordination development, make structural emission reduction play greater important role,and keep a wary eye on the problem of the reverse structure adjustment by the industrial regional transfer. ⑤Further strengthen the international cooperation, and vigorously promote industrial carbon emission technologies application and development, including the CCUS technology application and development.