人民币汇率变动对中国出口的非对称影响研究

The asymmetric impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's exports

本文基于2001年1月到2008年12月商品出口的HS二位分类数据,采用异质面板共同因子模型分析了中国人民币汇率变动对出口贸易的非对称影响.实证结论表明,人民币汇率对出口贸易的影响是随着各种出口商品中加工贸易的金额的变化而变化的.当加工贸易较少时,人民币升值对行业出口有负的影响;但这种负面影响随着商品的加工贸易出口额上升逐渐减小,最后变成是正向的影响.本文还结合中国目前商品出口的结构特征和加工贸易的金额,解释了人民币升值使贸易出口增加的宏观现象,以及有大量企业经营困难的微观现象.

This paper utilizes the heterogeneous common factor models to investigate the asymmetric impacts of RMB exchange rate on the exports based on the export data classified by HS 2 digits from January 2001 to December 2008.The results show that the impacts of RMB exchange rate on Chinese exports vary with the exports of processing commodities.The appreciation of RMB will have a negative effect on the exports with small proportion of processing commodities.However,this negative impacts will decrease when the proportion of export on processing commodities increases.This paper also explains why the RMB’s appreciation has a positive impact on Chinese export and a large number of firms find it hard to operate.