我国外汇储备间接投资结构的历史演化与动态考察

Historical Evolution and Dynamic Analysis of China's National Reserves' Indirect Investment Structure:Based on International Payment Balance Sheet

2006年以来我国外汇储备一直蝉联世界首位,巨额外汇储备在保证我国国际收支平衡和稳定本币汇率方面发挥着积极作用,但是也同样面临着收益率缩水和投资结构不合理等问题。本文基于历史演化过程的动态比较方法,运用国际收支平衡表分析工具,对1997—2012年间我国外汇储备间接投资结构的动态变化过程进行了分析和比较。结果表明:我国外汇储备投资主要集中于政府中长期债权和货币市场工具,债权投资的比重大于股权投资的比重,外汇储备投资优先保证其安全性和流动性,而将盈利性置于次要位置,外汇间接投资结构具有明显的路径依赖特征。

China＇s national foreign exchange reserve takes the fn＇st place in the world since 2006, huge foreign exchange reserve takes positive role in guaranteeing the balance of international payment and RMB foreign exchange, but it also bears some problems such as decreased returns and unreasonable investment structure. This paper adopts the dynamic comparison method and uses international balance sheet as the research tool to explore the dynamic changes of China＇s foreign exchange reserve indirect investment structure between 1997--2012. Our results reveal that China＇s foreign exchange reserve historically focused on securities investment rather than stock investment, in other word, China＇s foreign exchange reserve put the principal of security and liquidity as the first priority, rather than profitability, the indirect investment structure characterized as the path dependence.