中国产出缺口估计及影响因素研究——基于1986—2012年多方法和多数据的分析

Estimation for the Output Gap of China and Research on Its Influential Factors—Analysis Based on Multi-method and Multi-data during 1986—2012

分别采用线性趋势、HP滤波以及小波降噪方法估算1986—2012年我国的实时、事后修正和准实时产出缺口,对各方法估计结果从实时与事后修正估计的一致性、对通货膨胀的预测能力、与历史经济波动曲线走向的一致性和稳定性四个维度进行比较分析,得出小波降噪实时产出缺口估计结果较优的结论。从内生推动、外生拉动两个方面分析产出缺口形成的影响因素,结果表明:内生因素中,技术进步波动对GDP产出缺口的影响较大,国际资本投入次之,人力资本投入最小,并且国际资本与人力资本投入在滞后一期的影响均比同期大;外生因素中,产出缺口受城镇人均可支配收入的影响较大,同时也受到人口老龄化程度的负向影响。因此调节产出缺口,应从促进技术进步、提高人力资本、引导外资投入、优化收入分配、改善人口结构等方面入手。

this paper output gap By applying linear trend method, HP filtering method and wavelet noise reduction method respectively, makes comparison and analysis of such four dimensions as real-time, post-correction and quasi-real-time estimation during 1986--2012 in China, the consistency from real-time to post-correction of the estimation from all kinds of methods, the consistency between inflation prediction capacity and historic economic volatility curve trends and the stability of the estimated results, concludes that the real-time output gap estimation result by wavelet noise reduction method is better, analyzes the influential factors of output gap from such two aspects as endogenous pull and exogenous drive, and the results show that the influence of technical progress volatility on GDP output gap is big in endogenous factors, the influence of international capital is second and the influence of human capital input is the smallest, meanwhile, the impact of the input of international capital and human capital on the later period is bigger than on the same period, and that in exogenous factors, the impact of urban per capita disposable income on output gap rate is big while output population aging degree. Thus, output gap adjustment should start from technical efficiency-increase, foreign capital investment attraction, income distribution improvement and so on. gap rate is negatively affected by progress promotion, human capital optimization, population structure