量化宽松货币政策对公共债务管理的影响、风险及其启示

Influence,Risks and Implications of the QE Policy on Public Debt Management

金融危机爆发后,量化宽松货币政策从三个方面影响了公共债务:央行向财政部上缴铸币税;降低再融资成本;刺激经济增长增加财政收入,从而有效提高公共债务的可持续水平。在此过程中,国债市场同时承担了货币政策传导和政府融资功能,中央银行致力于将投资者的资金从长期国债市场挤入短期资本市场,降低投资者的债务久期,而公共债务管理者则试图在低利率环境下发行长期债券延长债务久期,降低债务成本,二者的政策效果在一定程度上相互抵消。随着发达国家相继退出量化宽松货币政策,国债利息将会迅速增长,潜在风险不容忽视。对中国而言,未来需要进一步深化国内债券市场;降低主权债务管理与货币政策、金融稳定的潜在冲突,建立国家层面的资产负债表管理框架。

After the eruption of the global financial crisis,quantitative easing has had impact on public debt through three channels:increasing the seigniorage tax distributed to treasury by the central bank;decreasing cost of refinancing;and increasing fiscal revenue by boosting growth.The QE policy has improved the sustainability of public debt.The central bank tends to push investors from the long-term government bond market into the short-term capital market and decrease the duration of debt.However,the government' s public debt management departments tend to extend debt duration by issuing long-term bonds while interest rates are low,thus cutting costs of debt.The conflicting policies offset each other.As some developed countries begin to quit the QE program,the interest rate of treasury bonds will rise strongly,which will bring risks.For China,policymakers need to improve the treasury bond market,reconcile the conflict among management of public debt,monetary policies and finance stability,and build a State-level framework for balance sheet management.