1990年以来湖南人口与经济重心及其演化

The Dynamic Evolvement Procedure of Population and Economic Gravity Center in Hunan from 1990s

人口应与经济协调发展,以湖南省为例,采用重心理论分析了湖南省1990年以来的人口、GDP、三大产业重心的区域分布特征,并探讨了重心动态演化的原因。实证表明:1湖南省人口、经济分布存在不均衡性,主要表现为西南与东北的差异。2从移动方向上来看,人口重心与经济重心的移动方向一致,均由西南向东北移动;从移动幅度和移动速度上看,人口重心的移动滞后于经济重心的移动。3均衡性表现为偏移距离按第一产业产值重心、GDP重心、第三产业产值重心、人口重心、第二产业产值重心的顺序逐步降低,且各要素分布逐渐均衡化。4第一产业是影响人口迁移的主要因素,第二产业和第三产业是经济重心移动的主要力量。最后对湖南的人口合理分布与经济的协调发展提出建议。

This article mainly evaluates the regional distribution of the population gravity center and the economic gravity center in Human Province based on the gravity center theory, and comparatively analyze the population gravity center with the economic gravity center on the basis of the moving trajectory draw through GIS technology. Moreover,the coordinates of the center of gravity of each year are calculated through gray correlation theory in order to further analyze the law and the main reasons of the dynamic evolution of the population gravity center and the economic gravity center in Hunan in 1990- 2011. The empirical results shows that：1） the distribution of the population and economy is indeed imbalanced in Hunan Province, especially between the southwest and northeast parts; 2） From the direction of movement, the direction of movement of the population is in line with the economic gravity center which all move from southwest to northeast; but from the range of movement and movement speed, the population gravity center lags behind the economic gravity center; 3） the moved distance is reducing in sequence of population, the primary industry, GDP, the tertiary industry, and the secondary industry; 4） the primary industry is the main power of the immigration of population whereas the secondary and tertiary industry are the main courses of the movement of the economic gravity center. Last but not least, aimed at the characteristics of the evolution of the population and economic gravity center in Hunan, the article put forward some policy suggestions in order to achieve the harmonious development of economy and population in Hunan.