我国城镇人口年龄结构变化对城镇旅游发展的影响

Effects of Changes in the Age Structure of Urban Population in China on the Development of Tourism

收集1997—2007年相关数据资料,在提出相关假设的基础上,逐步剥离影响旅游发展的因素,测定城镇人口年龄结构变化对城镇旅游发展的影响,结果显示：①0～14岁和25～44岁人口在城镇总人口中所占的比重呈下降趋势,45～64岁和65岁及以上的人口在城镇总人口中所占比重呈上升趋势;②25～44岁及45～64岁人口是城镇旅游消费的主力,人均旅游花费、出游率和出游量较高,旅游花费贡献率和出游量贡献率较大;③城镇人口数量增长、城镇人口年龄结构变化对城镇旅游发展具有促进作用,在所有促进城镇旅游发展的因素中,城镇人口数量增长与城镇人口年龄结构同时变化对城镇旅游花费增长的总影响在33%～42%,对城镇出游量增长的总影响在27%～50%,但对出游量增长的影响有减弱的趋势;④城镇人口年龄结构变化对城镇旅游发展的影响较小,在所有影响城镇旅游发展的因素中,城镇人口年龄结构变化对城镇旅游花费的影响在1.2%以下,对城镇出游量的影响在3.2%以下,构建相关模型,揭示各年龄阶段人口变化对城镇旅游发展的边际贡献。

The paper systematically collects relevant data from 1997 to 2007. Based on some relevant assumptions, it gradually strips away the factors affecting tourism development, and determines the influence of China＇s urban population change in age structure on tourism development. Conclusions are as follows： ① The age groups of 0-14 and25-44 occupy a decreasing part of the total population, while age groups of 46-64 and above 65 show the opposite trend;② Age groups from 25-44 and 45-64 stand the main part of tourism consumption in urban areas, their per-capita travel costs, travel rates and number of tourists are high, and the rate of travel costs and tourists＇ number are high; ③ Urban population and change in age structure do play a positive role in promoting tourism. Among all the positive factors, urban population growth and change in age structure occupy 33-42% of tourism costs, 27-50% of tourist＇s volume growth, but the influence of tourist＇s growth is decreasing; ④ The change in age structure has the least influence on tourism development. Among all the factors on influencing tourism development, the rate of urban population change in age structure to travel costs is below 1.2%; to tourists volume growth is below 3.2%. Relevant models are built to reveal the margin contribution of all the age population to tourism development.