我国旱灾变迁及对粮食产量的影响

Change of Drought and Its Impact on Grain Production in China

通过对我国1950-2011年旱灾数据的研究,分析了旱灾变迁规律:旱灾成灾面积约占总成灾面积的52.53%,成为自然灾害之首;旱灾受灾面积与成灾面积高度相关;旱灾受灾周期平均14.25a,而且周期有缩小的趋势;旱情在空间上发生了转移,最严重的是东北、华北地区,最轻的是华中、华南地区。最后利用统计软件得出我国粮食产量和旱灾成灾面积的回归方程,并提出统筹兼顾以抗旱为主,以及推广应用抗旱高产品种和加大研究节水灌溉措施等建议。

Through the study on the data of drought from 1950 to 2011 in China,this paper analyzed the law of drought changes.The results showed that the areas affected by drought accounted for about 52＆#183;53% of the total areas affected by natural disasters,which became the most severe natural disaster;the areas covered and areas affected by drought were highly correlated;the average cycle of drought was 14＆#183;25 years,and it presented a narrowing trend;the space of drought had been shifting,Northeast and North China being the most serious region, while Central and South China being the lightest.Finally,the regression equation of grain output and drought disaster areas were obtained by the statistical software.The proposals were put forward：giving priority to drought resistance as well as taking all factors into consideration, promoting the use of high-yielding and drought-resistant varieties,and increasing the research in water-saving irrigation measures.