基于CGE模型的我国能源-环境-经济系统分析

Analysis of the energy-environment-economy system in China based on the dynamic CGE model

利用一般均衡(CGE)模型分析能源与环境问题时,能源部门的合理划分与相对准确的基准情景预测是非常重要的.通过RAS法(双比列平衡法)实现对能源部门的合理细分,并对模型结构和外生参数合理设置的基础上,构建动态CGE模型对我国2007年—2030年经济增长,能源消费与碳排放的发展趋势与变化特征进行了相对准确的预测分析.研究结果表明,在模拟期内我国经济保持相对比较高的增长率,但增长速度逐渐放缓.能源强度和碳排放强度不断降低,能源消费结构和产业结构逐渐得到优化,但随着经济增长,能源消耗总量和CO_2排放总量也逐渐增加.

How to disaggregate the energy sector and to forecast the baseline scenarios accurately is very sig- nificant when computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is used to analyze the energy and environmental issues. This paper firstly scientifically disaggregates the energy sectors by RAS method （Bi-proportional Scal- ing Method） and reasonably sets the model structure and exogenous parameters.Then, a dynamic CGE model is conducted to relatively accurately analyze the development trends and variation characteristics of China＇s eco- nomic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030. The empirical results show that China＇s GDP will keep at a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will gradually slow down during the simulation period. The energy intensity and the carbon emissions intensity will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will be gradually optimized. However, the total energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emissions will still increase with the economic growth.