基于MaxEnt的非洲橘硬蓟马在全球及中国的潜在分布区预测

Potential Distribution of Scirtothrips aurantii in China and the World Predicted by MaxEnt

非洲橘硬蓟马是柑橘等多种植物的重要检疫性害虫,明确其在全球及中国的潜在分布区域,对于有效控制此虫害在全球的扩散蔓延具有重要的意义。基于最大熵算法的生态位模型MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件Arc-Gis对非洲橘硬蓟马进行适生区分析及预测,用受试者工作特征曲线对预测模型和结果进行评估,用Jackknife法分析影响非洲橘硬蓟马的重要因子。结果表明,非洲橘硬蓟马在全球的适生区为非洲南部、南美洲中东部、墨西哥中部、澳大利亚东海岸、印度南部、东南亚中部和西亚的也门;该虫在中国的高风险区为海南大部和云南中部,中风险区为贵州大部、广西大部、广东大部、福建东南沿海和四川西南部。对非洲橘硬蓟马发生具有重要影响的是温度季节性变化标准差、等温性和年均温变化范围。

Scirtothrips aurantii is an important pest of citrus and object of cosmopolitan plants quarantine.Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Scirtothrips aurantii is an important factor for effectively controlling the spreading of this pest. In this study, niche model MaxEnt and Arc-Gis were applied to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of Scirtothrips aurantii, ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and Jackknife analysis was made to analyze the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of Scirtothrips aurantii. The results showed that, south of Africa,mid-east of southern America, mid of Mexico, east coast of Australia, south of India, mid of southeastern Asia and Yemen were the main suitable areas for Scirtothrips aurantii in the world. In China, the high risk areas were in Hainan and the mid of Yunnan, the secondary risk areas were in Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong,southeast of Fujian and south of Sichuan. The important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of Scirtothrips aurantii were temperature seasonality, isothermally and temperature annual range.