中国区域经济增长的空间关联及其解释——基于网络分析方法

Study on the Spatial Correlation and Explanation of Regional Economic Growth in China——Based on Analytic Network Process

本文测度了1978-2012年中国区域经济增长的空间关联关系,并运用网络分析法和QAP方法,全新解构了区域经济增长的空间关联特征及影响因素。主要发现有:(1)中国区域经济增长空间网络具有稳定性和多重叠加性,共存在179个空间关联关系。(2)中国区域经济可分四个功能板块。第一板块是"双向溢出板块",主要由东部发达地区组成;第二板块是"经纪人板块",由具有较强经济增长活力的省份组成;第三板块是"主受益板块",由中西部发展较快的地区组成;第四板块是"净受益板块",由中西部落后地区组成。(3)中国区域经济增长溢出效应具有明显梯度特征。第一板块是经济增长的发动机,它将经济增长的动能传给第二板块,第二板块又将动能传给第三和第四板块。(4)中国区域经济增长在空间关联上具有"近水楼台先得月"和"门当户对"特征,地理位置的空间相邻、投资消费结构和产业结构的相似可以解释50.2%的空间关联。

The paper depicts the characteristics of spatial correlation of regional economic growth in China by using Analytic Network Process and studies the influence factors of spatial correlation based on the QAP method. The results show that： （1） There exist 179 spatial correlation relationships between provinces and the spatial correlation is stability and multiple. （2） The regional economic growth in China can be divided four plates. The first is ＂bidirectional spillover plate＂ composed of the eastern coastal developed regions and the second is ＂agent plate＂ composed of the provinces with higher economic activity. The third is ＂ main beneficial plate＂ composed of middle and western regions which develop faster. At last, the fourth is ＂ net beneficial plate＂ composed of middle and western regions with less developed economy. （ 3 ） Regional economic spillover effects have obvious gradient feature. The first plate is the engine of economic growth,which will transfer the energy of economic growth to the second plate. The second plate will transfer the energy to the third and fourth plate. （4） The adjacent of geographical location and the similar structure of investment, consumption and industry are important factors,which can explain 50, 2% of spatial correlation relationships.