中国是否挤占了OECD成员国的对外投资？

Has China Displaced the Outward Investments of OECD Countries?

由于中国迅速成为世界上最大的对外投资者之一,因而国外许多学者就中国成长为重要的对外投资者是否会削弱包括经合组织(OECD)成员国在内的西方工业化国家的投资地位展开了激烈争论。本文主要通过实证分析对上述争论进行了解答。本文构建了一个拓展的引力模型,运用目前可以获得的2003-2009年间33个OECD成员国对155个国家投资的面板数据,通过二阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)进行参数估计,实证分析了中国的对外直接投资(OFDI)是否挤占了OECD成员国的对外投资。研究发现,中国的对外投资从总体上看挤占了OECD成员国的对外投资;但是在资源丰富的国家,特别是在非洲和拉丁美洲,中国的OFDI并未对OECD成员国的对外投资产生挤出效应。本文的研究结论表明,西方有些学者提出的所谓的"新殖民主义"中国对外投资威胁论并不成立。

As China has rapidly emerged as one of the world＇s largest investors abroad, there has been a hectic debate in the literature on whether its emergence as a major foreign investor may have undermined the importance of western industrialised economies, including those in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development （OECD）. This paper aims to investigate whether this is the case. The study uses a panel dataset covering 155 countries, including 33 in the OECD, where China had invested during 2003--09. This is by far the most comprehensive dataset of China＇s outward foreign direct investment（OFDI）. A two-stage least squared （TSLS）regression approach is adopted for our econometric models according to an established augmented gravity model in the literature. The empirical results show clear evidence that China＇s OFDI displaces that of the OECD countries, but the argument that China＇s emergence is a ＇ new colonialism＇ is not supported as OECD countries＇ OFDI in resource abundant host countries, particularly that in Africa and Latin America, does not appear to have been displaced by China＇s OFDI.