贸易壁垒如何影响了中国的出口边际?——以反倾销为例的经验研究

How Do Trade Barriers Affect Dual Margins of China's Export Growth?

已有考察贸易边际影响因素的文献大都强调了贸易成本的重要性,但并未明确考察贸易成本组成要素各自的作用。贸易成本中包含的贸易壁垒因素会显著影响贸易的增长方式,因而考察贸易壁垒对贸易边际的影响能揭示出贸易增长的动力和源泉。本文聚焦于中国出口产品遭遇的反倾销壁垒对出口增长的二元边际所产生的影响。在考察期内,内涵边际稳步上升,而外延边际具有较强的波动性。从总体上看,外延边际的年均增长率显著低于内涵边际的增长率。计量结果稳健地表明,贸易伙伴发起的反倾销措施显著抑制了中国出口增长的内涵边际和外延边际,并且反倾销措施对外延边际的抑制效应要大于对内涵边际的抑制效应。为保证对外贸易增长的可持续性,中国各界需要探寻内外均衡的发展路径,同时积极应对贸易壁垒,将贸易保护带来的负面影响降到最低。

Previous studies on margins of trade export mainly highlight the importance of trade cost, while they did not explore the function of various types of trade cost. This text focuses on the impact of antidumping petitions by trade partners against Chinese goods on margins of China＇s export growth. In our observation period, intensive margin has increased steadily, while extensive margin exhibited a fluctuating feature. The annual growth rate of extensive margin was obviously lower than that of intensive margin as a whole. Our econometric results indicate that, antidumping measures have restrained the dual margins of China＇s export growth significantly, and the effect on extensive margin is larger than on intensive margin. For sustainable trade growth, Chinese government and industries need to explore new development path to achieve equilibrium and deal with trade harriers actively.