新型农村养老保险对家庭储蓄的影响:基于CFPS数据的研究

The Impacts of New Rural Pension Program on Household Saving:Evidence from CFPS

本文使用2010年和2012年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,考察了新农保对家庭储蓄和消费的影响并发现,对于60岁以下的参保居民,新农保并没有显著影响他们的储蓄率。由于大多数居民的新农保缴费额仅为100元,预期未来能领取的养老金数额较低,因此无法通过财富替代和降低风险的渠道减少家庭储蓄。与此同时,本文发现,新农保显著降低了60岁以上居民的储蓄率,这些老年人不需要缴纳保险费而直接可以领取基本养老金,养老金领取额(约每年660元)占收入的比重平均达到了22.4%,直接为老年人提供了稳定的经济保障。新农保要更大程度地起到促进居民消费的效果,需要采取措施激励人们缴纳更高的保费,提高新农保的养老金替代率。

This paper investigates the impacts of China＇s New Rural Pension Program on household saving and consumption using the survey data from China Family Panel Studies. We find that, the New Rural Pension Program does not reduce the saving rate of people younger than 60. The primary reason is that most people only pay yearly insurance contributions approximately 100 yuan and the anticipated amount of pension is very low, therefore it cannot reduce household saving through the wealth replacement effect or lowering income uncertainty. However, for people older than 60, who can directly receive basic pension without paying insurance contributions, the New Rural Pension Program significantly reduces their saving rate and boosts their consumption. Although they can only receive yearly pension at approximately 660 yuan, this number accounts for 22.4% of total household income on average, thereby reducing income uncertainty substantially and instantly. Therefore, in order to better achieve the aim of reducing household saving rate, the New Rural Pension Program should encourage people to pay more contributions and raise the pension replacement rate.