一个古典-马克思经济增长模型的中国经验

The Chinese Experience of a Classical-Marx Economic Growth Model

目前主流的新古典增长理论存在着非正统经济学所提出的总量生产函数和边际生产力法则的虚假性质疑与逻辑悖论质疑,并丢失了古典宏观经济理论和马克思经济学所重视的收入分配与阶级分析传统。因此,一类古典-马克思经济增长模型在最近十余年发展起来并得到相当程度应用。本文利用1978-2012年中国的数据对它进行了检验,结果发现中国经济存在劳动生产率提高和资本生产率下降的"马克思有偏技术进步",该模型对中国经济的有效性成立,这意味着固定工资份额假设下,经济将会遇到实际工资率上升、长期利润率下降的"马克思趋势"。

For the existing mainstream neoclassical economic growth theory, the aggregate production function and the law of marginal productivity are questioned with falsity and logical paradox. The mainstream theory has lost income distribution and class analysis tradition which are attached great importance by the classical macroeconomic theory and Marx＇s economics. Therefore, a classical-Marx economic growth model is developed and given much application in the past ten years. This paper makes empirical analysis for the model with Chinese data in 1978-2012, showing that there is a Marx-Biased Technical Change with rising labor productivity and declining capital productivity, and the model is valid for Chinese economy, which means, in the assumption of constant wage share, the Chinese economy may run into the Marx Trend of increasing real wage rate and decreasing long-term profit rate.