超额工资、外部成本渠道与中国通货膨胀非线性关系研究——基于技术进步方式理论下的MSIAH-VAR模型实证分析

THE NONLINEAR RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN EXCESS WAGE,EXTERNAL COSTS CHANNEL AND CHINA'S INFLATION——Based on Technological Advances Theory and MSIAH-VAR Model Analysis

本文利用MSIAH-VAR模型就超额工资、外部成本、石油冲击等成本渠道对中国通货膨胀影响进行研究。实证结果发现,工资增长率超过产出增长率的超额工资加强了对中国的通货膨胀的推升作用,2003年后超额工资增长率与通胀率形成了相互推进的"超额工资增长—通胀"螺旋。在技术进步不足以消化成本上升时,外部输入成本和石油冲击对于国内的通胀作用也将逐步加强。但M2的高速增长率似乎没有对通胀带来明显的拉动作用,随着房地产等资产投机市场的回调,流动性回流到实体经济可能存在催生通胀的隐患。

This paper studied the influence of excess wages, external cost and oil shocks on China＇s in- flation with MSIAH-VAR model. Empirical results showed that the rate of wage growth exceeding the out- put （excess wages） strengthened the role of push-up on China＇s inflation, and pushing of excess wage and inflation had formed an ＂excess wage growth-inflation＂ spiral after 2003. When technical advance was not enough to digest rising costs, the external costs and oil shock to domestic inflation would gradually strengthen. However, the high speed growth rate of M2 does not seem to significantly drive inflation, along with ebbing of real estate and other asset markets, the real economy may generate inflation risks.