损益框架和损益概率对不同年级儿童风险决策的影响

The Effect of Framing and Probability of Profit and Loss on Risky Decision Making in Children from Different Grade

采用简单决策任务考察儿童风险决策是否存在框架效应,探讨儿童风险决策的年龄发展趋势。实验1发现,儿童在获益情境下作出更多的保守决策,损失情境下作出更多的冒险决策;二、四年级比六年级儿童更冒险。实验2发现获益情境下,不同年级儿童冒险决策得分、不同损益概率下儿童冒险决策得分均满足线性趋势。这表明,二年级儿童风险决策已存在框架效应,具有概率判断认知能力;但获益情境下,年级越低,概率水平越高,儿童越冒险。

Children＇s risk decision affects their life,the risk decision made by the children in their experiment situation can predict children＇s risky decisions and behavior in their real life.Therefore,the purpose of the study is to investigate how framework of profits and losses influence children＇s risk decision,and children＇s perception of different probability of profit and loss,and analyse the developmental trends of grade of children＇s risk decision. the research,we conducted two experiments to test these questions.Experiment 1 used the between-group design of 2 （framework of profit and loss： gain/loss）×3 （grade： grade two/four/six） to investigate the developmental characteristics of the risky decision made by 177children,according to the method of random sampling to choose 59 people in grade two,grade four and grade six,the result showed that： Children made more conservative decisions in benefit situation,while they made more risky decisions in loss situation,but children of grade two and grade four tend to be more risky than the children of grade six.it shows that framing effect exist in children＇s risk decision and children have cognitive ability to judge the probability. Experiment 2 conducted mixed design of 2 （framework of profit and loss： gain/loss）×3（probability of profit and loss： high/medium/low）×5（grade： grade two/three/four/five/six） to investigate the development characteristics of the risky decision made by 443 children,according to the method of random sampling to choose participants from grade two to grade six.it showed that（1） The interaction effect between grade and the profits and losses framework is significant.The risky scores in loss situation were significantly higher than that in benefit situation.The developmental lineal trends of grade did not exist significant differences in loss situation, but in benefit situation,children of grade two are more risky than grade six,children of grade three are more risky than grade four and grade six,the risky scores among grade four, grade five and grade six did not exist significant differences. （2）The interaction effect between framework and probability of profit and loss is significant.The developmental lineal trends of probability did not exist significant differences in loss situation,but in benefit situation.When the probability to gain is higher, individuals are likely to take risks.when the probability is low, while individuals are likely to risk averse. Accordingly, the main conclusions are as follows：（1）the framing effect of risky decision has existed in grade two,the lower grade of grade two and grade three showed more risk preference than the higher grade in benefit situation rather than in loss situation;（2）in risk decision,the framing effect of risky decision has existed in the task of different probability, children are sensitive to the task of different probability in benefit situation,they can perceive the risk probability, they often showed a characteristic of overvalu the occurance of high probability events and undervalue low probability events.