保障性住房建设与土地财政关系的实证研究——基于“结构方程”模型

近年来,我国保障性住房建设滞后和地方政府过分依赖土地出让金的问题逐渐凸显。本文主要从以下两个方面来分析两者之间的关联性:一是保障性住房建设与住宅出让土地之间的关系系;二是保障性住房建设与土地财政收益之间的关系。通过分析并建立"结构方程"模型进行实证研究后发现现:保障性住房建设与土地财政的负相关性比较显著,应该建立保障性住房建设的激励机制,设计一个合理的提取土地出让收入比例的"维稳"方案。

In recent years, there are increasingly many problems that China＇ s construction of affordable housing lags and local govern- ments are overdependent on land premiums. This article analyzes the relationships between the two aspects. The. first one is the relationship between the construction of affordable housing and residential land transfer. The second one is the relationships between construction of affordable housing and land financial gains. Under this theory, this article conducts an empirical analysis of their relationships, and then establishes the structural equation model. Finally we get the result ＂Y = 10. 393X ＋ ξ＂, which indicates that there is a significantly negative correlation between construction of affordable housing and land finance. Ultimately, we propose effective recommendations of creating incentives for construction of affordable housing, perfecting the performance appraisal system and designing a program of a reasonable proportion for extracting land transfer income.