基于真实储蓄理论的区域可持续发展能力评价--以新疆国民经济和社会发展为例

基于真实储蓄理论,对新疆2001—2012年可持续发展能力进行评价。研究发现,新疆的真实储蓄在研究时段内有4年(2006—2009)为负值值,其其余8个年度为正值。然而而,这8个年度中2001、2002、2010和2011年4个年度的真实储蓄率都比较低,不足2%。新疆的经济发展是建立在自然资源的巨大消耗和环境污染的基础之上,即虽然拥有丰富的矿产资源,但没有显著拉动地区经济的发展发展,反而降低了地区经济可持续发展的能力。为此,新疆应改变严重依赖自然资源和牺牲环境为代价的经济增长模式。

This article conducted a sustainable valuation for resources, environment and development in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2012 based on Genuine Savings theory. The results showed that Genuine Savings of the four years （2006 -2009） in Xinjiang were negative, the results of the other eight years were positive. However, the Genuine Savings Rate of 2001, 2002 , 2010 and 2011 were relatively low, less than 2%. The economic development of Xinjiang is based on depletion of giant amount of natural resources and environment pollution. Although being abundant, the mineral resources in Xinjiang didn＇t promote economic development. Instead, it lowered down the ability of sustainable development of regional economy. Therefore, Xinjiang should change the past mode of economic growth which is heavily dependent on natural resources and the expense of the environment.