生物燃料替代化石燃料的影响因素研究——基于能源、粮食、环境视角的跨国面板数据分析

Determinants of Replacement of Biofuels for Fossil Fuels: Research Based on Views from Energy, Food and Environment by Using a Cross-Country Panel Dataset

根据2000-2010年跨国面板数据,利用随机效应tobit模型研究了影响全球生物燃料替代化石燃料的因素。研究发现,生物燃料对耕地资源的依赖很大;农作物单产和碳排放对生物燃料消费比重有正面影响,但均需通过人均国民收入的中介作用来实现;人均国民收入对生物燃料消费比重有正面影响,这种影响也包含了农作物单产和碳排放的间接影响。

Based on a panel dataset from 2000 to 2010, this paper utilizes a random-effect tobit model to analyze globaldeterminants of replacement of biofuels for fossil fuels. Empirical results show that dependency of biofuels on arableland is large; yields of agricultural products and carbon emission have significant impacts on biofuels consumption,which are mediated by national income per capita; national income per capita has significant impact on biofuelsconsumption, which includes impacts of both yields and carbon emission.