基于SD的城市化与生态环境耦合发展研究——以黑龙江省东部煤电化基地为例

Research on Urbanization and Ecological Environment Coupling Development Based on SD Model: A Case in Eastern Coal-Electricity Base of Heilongjiang Province

采用系统动力学方法,结合黑龙江省东部煤电化基地建设的特点,构建了区域城市化与生态环境相互耦合系统脆弱性与协调性发展系统动力学模型,在真实有效性检验基础上,通过对参数变量的适当调控,选取五种典型的耦合发展模式对黑龙江省东部煤电化基地城市化与生态环境进行动态模拟。结果表明:(1)区域城市化与生态环境相互耦合系统是非线性的、时变性的复杂巨系统,SD模型分析此类问题具有明显的适用性。模型的历史数据拟合的误差小,反映它具有一定可靠性,能在一定程度上真实、有效地反映区域城市化与生态环境相互耦合的复杂行为。(2)在不同的模式下,该区域城市化与生态环境耦合的结果和情景存在较大差异,五种耦合发展模式都有其显著的比较优势,同时也存在一定的发展缺陷。综合协调发展模式是现阶段及未来一段时期内该区域城市化和生态环境的协调发展的目标。(3)依据SD模型,在数量上对城市化进程中的社会、空间、资源、经济与生态环境等各子系统的变量进行合理控制,可以实现城市可持续发展。

Using the system dynamic method, we combined characteristics of coal-electricity base establishmentin eastern Heilongjiang Province and constructed a system dynamic model that regional urbanization couples withecological environment and coordinates with vulnerability. On the bases of validity test and variables regulation, weselected five typical coupling development modes to simulate the regional urbanization and ecological environment inthe coal-electricity base. The results show as follows： l） For the nonlinear and time-variable characteristics of the hugecoupling system, it is very suitable to use the SD model to analyze the problem. The minor errors of fitting historicaldata indicated the urbanization and ecological environment coupled complexity validly and effectively. 2） The resultsdiffer from each other in the five modes. Each mode had evident advancements as well as flaws. Comprehensive andcoordinating development is the goal of urbanization and ecological environment interaction in present and future stages.3） According to SD model, rational regulation of social, spatial, economical, ecological variables can realize the urbansustainable development.