CMIP5多模式集合对黄土高原地表辐射的模拟

Simulation of the surfa radiation in the Loess Plateau on CMIP5 multimodel ensemele

利用WCRP CMIP5提供的20个全球气候模式的模拟结果,采用多模式集合分析方法,分析了我国黄土高原地区1861-2005年地表辐射的变化特征。结果表明:黄土高原地区地表短波辐射和净辐射呈减小趋势,长波辐射呈增大趋势。向下短波和向上短波辐射下降幅度分别约为6.73W·m-2·100a-1和1.69W·m-2·100a-1,向下长波和向上长波辐射增加幅度分别约为5.3W·m-2·100a-1和2.53W·m-2·100a-1,地表净辐射下降幅度大约为2.26W·m-2·100a-1。地表净辐射变化主要以向下短波辐射的影响为主。全球变暖,温度升高,引起了天空总云量增加、降水增加、蒸发增强、表层土壤湿度降低、LAI增大、积雪覆盖面积缩小等变化,这些变化共同作用引起地表辐射变化,最终反馈给气候系统,导致气候进一步变化。

Using the 20 global climate model simulation results provided by WCRP CMIP5 and multi model ensemble analysis method,the simulating surface radiation in the Loess Plateau in China from 1861 to 2005 were analyzed. The results show the surface short- wave radiation and net surface radiation had been decreasing,but the long- wave radiation had been increasing from 1861 to 2005. The decreasing value of surface downwelling and upwelling solar radiation were about 6. 73W·m^- 2·100a^- 1and 1. 69W·m^- 2·100a^- 1,respectively. The increasing value of surface downwelling and upwelling long- wave radiation were about 5. 3W·m^- 2·100a^- 1and 2. 53W·m^- 2·100a^- 1,respectively. The decreasing of surface net radiation was about 2. 26W·m^- 2·100a^- 1. The surface downwelling short- wave solar radiation was the main factor causing the net surface radiation change. Global warming and temperature rising have caused many climate factors changed,including cloud area fraction increasing,precipitation increasing,evaporation enhancing,surface soil moisture reducing,leaf area index increasing and snow cover area reducing,et al. With the surface radiation changing by these factors,climate system will be changed.